Middle East today could be termed as a big mess. And viewers and analyst don’t see it getting better. In fact it is getting worse. With major powers flexing their muscles and show of strength using their military might in Syria, whole thing is attracting more Jihadis both from east and west to fight both Assad regime and western forces.
Global powers previously who were putting all efforts to some how overthrow Iranian/ Russian backed Syrian government, now have some what realized that over all civil war in both Iraq and Syria is turning out to be spread of violent Islamic Jihad of ISIL or Daesh.
It was start of Arab Spring and one after other governments of Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt and Libya fell and it was looking that Assad’s regime will be following in next. Global powers including USA, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other middle eastern states thought that a little push from outside would be enough to topple Syrian government but never thought of who would be filling in the power vacuum after fall of Assad.
Gamble failed badly as Assad has been able to hold on to power for the past 3 years against all the odds. He has been able to face domestic armed resistance as well as well trained and armed militants from USA, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other Arab states. Groups having hardliner ideology followed in Syria and slowly gained sympathies of Jihad lovers from across the globe. This resulted in spreading of ISIS from Syria to Iraqi territories.
Situation inside Syria is now in such a mess that now government can gain upper hand by any strategic or tactical tool or even manipulate the overall situation for its gain. Conflicts in Yemen, Syria and Iraq are driven by Ideological, Religious and Tribal differences. Overall situation is growing more worse as Islamic State is now leading even USA and its Arab allies in race to over throw Syrian Government and get hold of power. For now as situation stands it is nearly impossible for any one to win as there are many who are supporting Assad but on other side there are many who are supporting directly or indirectly Islamic State’s agenda.
If being an analyst somebody is predicting that Assad is going to be removed they are making a mistake. Assad not being an ideal ruler for many but is a reality. He has been able to run a nation for long time even when in civil war. For many Syrians and those viewing situation from outside Syria, situation which would follow after Assad’s fall in form of anarchy or Islamic State gaining control over large territories isn’t acceptable. Overall now is the time for western governments and those in power in Middle East to openly accept their faliure and allow Assad and allies to quickly wind up the mess created by civil war. It is now an open reality that West and Arabs have been some how allied with Jihadis in Syria to over throw Assad however are fighting same Islamist jihadist in Iraq. For having order in Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and other states bordering Syria, world now has to work on restoration of order in Syria. It is also a reality that Assad never had acted upon sectarian lines before Saudi Arab had provided assistance to Islamic Extremist groups.
World will lose little if overall reversal in policy is bought i.e. building on working relation with Assad. If not so and still policy of of throwing Assad’s government with power will have a very negative outcome i.e. bringing in Islamic State and like minded in power. This frankly speaking will create more tension for Europe as they will be closer to Syria. Also this will lead to another armed campaign this time against Islamic State and Jihadis which will again create a new generation of Jihadis who we all know can not be bombed out.
In end, world needs to return to older order and make it easier first for Assad to throw out all forms of resistance. This will help Iraqi Government to dry out remaining factions of Islamic State and other Jihadi groups. Turkey will have to revise its policy of over throwing Assad. Turkey will also be in all win win situation as situation getting better in Syria will slow down refugee inflow.
History teaches us that by over throwing any dictator by force will only lead to much more chaos. At this point in time world needs to work out a possible plan as to how to end the conflict without disturbing the government of Syria. This will result in chain which will also help in solving cross border conflicts, recruitment by jihadis by enraging emotions and bring overall prosperity.
But with such positive end, many and specially those in Arab world will still have these questions, as to by bringing in peace Assad will still be in power, this means stronger position of Iran and Russia. Does this make it a wrong choice? Should we still go out throwing away money to get rid of Assad? Continue with our bombing campaigns in order to find out least possible bad jihadis who would fight Islamic State, Hate Assad but could work in line with policies of USA and its Arab Allies?